Geometrically Complex, Relatively Weak, and Subcritically Stressed Lembang Fault May Lead to a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake

https://doi.org/10.5614/j.eng.technol.sci.2025.57.1.10

Authors

  • Kadek Hendrawan Palgunadi Geophysical Engineering Department, Faculty of Civil, Planning and Geo Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Jalan Raya ITS, Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Jawa Timur https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3550-7341
  • Andrean Vesalius Hasiholan Simanjuntak Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No. 2 Kemayoran, Jakarta Pusat 10610, Jakarta
  • Rexha Verdhora Ry Global Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesa No. 10 Bandung 40132, Jawa Barat https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2090-4678
  • Mudrik Rahmawan Daryono Earthquake Research Group, Geological Disaster Research Center, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Jalan Sangkuriang, Dago, Bandung 40135, Jawa Barat https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4052-1068
  • Sri Widiyantoro Faculty of Engineering, Maranatha Christian University, Jalan Surya Sumantri No. 65, Sukawarma, Bandung 40164, Jawa Barat https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8941-7173
  • Dwa Desa Warnana Geophysical Engineering Department, Faculty of Civil, Planning and Geo Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Jalan Raya ITS, Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Jawa Timur https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6145-0265
  • Agnis Triahandini Geophysical Engineering Department, Faculty of Civil, Planning and Geo Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Jalan Raya ITS, Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Jawa Timur https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8249-5646
  • Firman Syaifuddin Geophysical Engineering Department, Faculty of Civil, Planning and Geo Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Jalan Raya ITS, Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Jawa Timur
  • Adhatus Solichah Ahmadiyah Department of Informatics, Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Jalan Raya ITS, Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Jawa Timur
  • Anne Meylani Magdalena Sirait Prodi Geofisika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Indonesia, Jalan Lingkar, Depok 16424, Jawa Barat https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3918-6298
  • Wiwit Suryanto Department of Physics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Sekip Utara, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta 55281
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Abstract

The Lembang Fault is one of the major faults in the province of West Java, approximately 10 km north of its capital, Bandung, a city inhabited by more than 2 million people. The fault exhibits distinct geometrical characteristics in its 29 km length, transitioning from normal, strike-slip, to vertical faulting mechanisms. Two studies have evidence of a normal fault with a dip direction to the north and a thrust fault with a dip direction to the south. Despite the lack of significant recorded earthquakes, the Lembang Fault is active and poses a high seismic hazard to the surrounding region. Previous deformation studies estimate that the fault could produce earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 to 7.0, though these estimates do not account for the fault's unique geometry, which includes bends at both its eastern and western ends. This geometrical complexity can significantly affect slip distribution, potentially leading to over- or underestimating earthquake magnitude. In this study, we assess the earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault using 3D dynamic rupture simulations that incorporate the fault's geometrical complexity, 3D velocity structure, and plastic deformation. Our simulations indicate that the fault's complex geometry enhances rupture slip to the east while halting it to the west, resulting in rupture along 80% of the fault's total length. However, according to our model, a self-sustained runaway rupture scenario occurs only if the fault is characterized by relatively weak apparent strength, subcritical stress, and overpressurization. This worst-case scenario could result in a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, posing a significant threat to the densely populated nearby city. Therefore, our findings have crucial implications for seismic hazard assessment around the Lembang Fault.

How to Cite

Kadek Hendrawan Palgunadi, Andrean Vesalius Hasiholan Simanjuntak, Rexha Verdhora Ry, Mudrik Rahmawan Daryono, Sri Widiyantoro, Dwa Desa Warnana, Agnis Triahandini, Firman Syaifuddin, Adhatus Solichah Ahmadiyah, Anne Meylani Magdalena Sirait, Wiwit Suryanto (2025). Geometrically Complex, Relatively Weak, and Subcritically Stressed Lembang Fault May Lead to a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake. Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences, Vol. 57 No. 1 (2025): Vol. 57 No. 1 (2025): February, 129-144. https://doi.org/10.5614/j.eng.technol.sci.2025.57.1.10

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Date Log

Submitted
August 29, 2024
Accepted
January 9, 2025
Published
January 31, 2025

Keywords

  • Bandung
  • dynamic rupture
  • earthquake
  • Lembang fault
  • seismic hazard

Issue

Vol. 57 No. 1 (2025): Vol. 57 No. 1 (2025): February

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Geometrically Complex, Relatively Weak, and Subcritically Stressed Lembang Fault May Lead to a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake. (2025). Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences, 57(1), 129-144. https://doi.org/10.5614/j.eng.technol.sci.2025.57.1.10

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