Stochastic–dynamic Modelling of Performance Degradation in a Grid-connected Rooftop Photovoltaic System

https://doi.org/10.5614/

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Abstract

This study investigates the effects of climatic variability and long-term module degradation on the technical performance of a 100-kWp grid-connected rooftop photovoltaic system installed on a university campus in a humid tropical climate. A 65-month observational dataset covering January 2020 to May 2025 was combined with 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations and a dynamic feedback model to estimate energy yield, performance ratio (PR), and performance degradation over a 25-year operating period. The simulated annual energy yield ranged from 111 to 129 MWh yr⁻¹ (P10–P90), with a median specific yield of approximately 1,200 kWh kWp⁻¹ yr⁻¹, while the PR remained within 0.75–0.80. A literature-informed two-stage degradation scenario—0.55% yr⁻¹ during Years 1–10 and 1.00% yr⁻¹ during Years 11–25—resulted in an estimated cumulative energy loss of 8.7% relative to the no-degradation baseline. Sobol sensitivity analysis identified the PR residual as the dominant contributor to annual energy-yield variance, followed by irradiance, temperature, and degradation. By preserving irradiance–temperature dependence through paired bootstrap resampling and incorporating time-dependent degradation, the proposed framework provides a more realistic representation of both short-term uncertainty and long-term performance decline. Applications to other humid tropical locations require site-specific inputs and independent validation.

How to Cite

Dani Yuniawan, Vetty Kartikasari, Rahman Arifuddin, Effendi Mohamad (2026). Stochastic–dynamic Modelling of Performance Degradation in a Grid-connected Rooftop Photovoltaic System. Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences, Vol. 58 No. 6 (2026): Vol. 58 No. 6(2026): December (In Progress), 854-873. https://doi.org/10.5614/

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Date Log

Submitted
February 17, 2026
Accepted
August 24, 2026
Published
September 30, 2026

Keywords

  • campus rooftop pv
  • degradation modelling
  • energy yield uncertainty
  • monte carlo simulation
  • performance ratio
  • stochastic-dynamic modelling
  • tropical climate

Issue

Vol. 58 No. 6 (2026): Vol. 58 No. 6(2026): December (In Progress)

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Stochastic–dynamic Modelling of Performance Degradation in a Grid-connected Rooftop Photovoltaic System. (2026). Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences, 58(6), 854-873. https://doi.org/10.5614/

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